Blackjack card counting
May 17, 2007 - Peter Persson
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The fundamental principle behind counting cards in blackjack is that a deck of cards with a higher proportion of high cards (tens and aces) to low cards is good for the player, while the reverse is true for the dealer. A deck rich in tens and aces improves the player's odds because blackjacks (which offer a higher payout than other winning hands) become more common, the dealer is more likely to bust a stiff hand, and double-downs are more successful.
Card counters raise their bets when the ratio of high cards to low cards in the deck is skewed in their favor. They also make strategy adjustments based on the ratio of high cards to low cards. These two adjustments to their betting and playing strategy can give players a mathematical advantage over the house.
Card counters are not tracking and memorizing specific cards but assign a heuristic point score to each card they see and then track only the total score. This score is called the "count".
Card counting systems
There are several card counting systems in use. They include:
The plus-minus count: Basic card counting assigns a positive, negative, or null value to each card (2 through ace). As each card is dealt, the running count is adjusted by each card's assigned value. There are multiple card counting systems in use, but a plus-minus count such as the Hi-Lo system is one of the more basic and illustrative systems. In the Hi-Lo system the cards 2 through 6 are assigned a value of +1. Tens (and face cards) through aces are assigned a value of -1. Cards 7, 8 and 9 have a value of zero (so they can be ignored). The Hi-Lo system is an example of a balanced card counting system, in that there are an equal number of +1 and -1 cards in the deck, so a count of all 52 cards would result in an end count of 0. The Hi-Lo system is considered a single-level or level-one count because the count never increments or decrements by more than one.
Multi-level counts: Examples are Zen Count or Wong Halves which make finer distinctions between card values to gain greater play accuracy. Rather than all cards having a value of +1, 0 or -1, an advanced count might also include card ranks that are counted as +2 or -2. Advanced players might additionally maintain a side count of specific cards such as a side count of aces to deal with situations where the best count for betting accuracy differs from the best count for playing accuracy. The disadvantage of higher-level counts is that keeping track of more information can detract from the ability to play quickly and accurately. A card-counter might earn more money by playing a simple count quickly — more hands per hour played — than by playing a complex count slowly.
With most card counting systems you are looking for a positive count. When the card count is positive, this generally means that many smaller cards have been played and the deck now has a higher percentage of larger cards. When the deck has a high percentage of larger cards, the player has several different advantages:
- Dealer will bust more often
- Player will be dealt more blackjacks
- Player will be dealt stronger and higher starting hands
When a card count is high, the player bets larger amounts of money because they have a higher mathematical advantage. Once the high count starts to drop and gets either neutral or into the negative, you go back to betting smaller amounts because the casino now has the higher advantage.
The benefits of card counting
Blackjack played with the perfect strategy typically offers a house edge of less than 0.50%, but a typical card counter who ranges his bets appropriately in a game with six decks will have an advantage of approximately 1% over the casino. This amount varies based on the counter's skill level and the playing conditions, and the variance in blackjack is high, so generating an hourly profit can take hundreds of hours of play. The deck will only have a positive enough count for the player to raise his bets 25% of the time.
At a table where a player makes a $1,000 average bet, a 1% advantage means a player will win on average $10 per hand. This translates into an average hourly winning of $500 if the player is dealt 50 hands per hour.
With typical bet ranging, a player's variance per hour is normally almost one hundred times his average bet per hand, meaning that a player whose strategy yields an average profit of $50 per hour will likely face a variance in the neighborhood of $5000 per hour. Therefore, it is highly advisable for counters to set aside a large dedicated bankroll; one popular rule of thumb dictates a bankroll of 250 times the average bet per hand at count = 0.
Another interesting aspect of the probability of card counting is the fact that, at higher counts, the player's probability of winning a hand is actually lower than at lower counts - so that, with an optimal strategy, the player places his highest bets on hands whose probability of losing is actually the highest. The player's edge over the house on such hands comes not from his probability of winning the hands, but from his ability to perform certain actions that are off limits to the house (like doubling down and splitting).
How to hone your card counting skills
The only way to become a skilled card counter is to practice. It can take several months if not years to truly master several of the card counting systems mentioned above. You need to be constantly practicing your card counting techniques and skills until you can count flawlessly.
Start with a card counting system that is easy to learn, such as the Hi-Lo count, and make sure to practice this system thoroughly before moving on to more complex systems.
And follow the advice of a professional card counter, Kevin Blackwood: "I quickly realized that playing against one deck was the easiest way to beat the game. Counting six decks is not more difficult than counting one, but the edge rarely rises as high and the win rate is usually lower in multiple decks. One and two deck offer the largest advantage for straight card counting."
Is card counting legal?
The act of card counting at a physical blackjack table with your brain alone (without using any counting devices such as computers and electronics), is considered to be perfectly legal and is not considered cheating.
However, most casinos will not allow a known card counter into their blackjack games and will generally ask card counters to leave if they are caught counting during a game. Since casinos are private property, they have full authority to ask players to leave and to not return if they are caught counting cards in blackjack. They cannot take legal action, but they can force you off their premises and ask you not to return.
Casinos have made a great amount of effort and spent a great deal of money trying to thwart card counters. Among the countermeasures used to prevent card counters from profiting at blackjack:
- Harassment of suspected card counters by casino staff. This may be as simple as engaging a suspected card counter in a conversation to break their concentration.
- Card counter identification using books of photos and new facial recognition technologies.
- Computerized scanners in blackjack tables which can identify counting systems when in use.
- Shuffling more often or shuffling when a player increases his wager size.
- Changing rules for splitting, doubling down, or playing multiple hands. This also includes changing a table's stakes.
Some of these countermeasures have a downside for the casino as well. Frequent shuffling, for example, reduces the amount of time that the non-counting players are playing and consequently loses money for the house. Some casinos now use automatic shuffling machines to compensate for this.
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